Jason Zweig在CFA年會訪問Seth Klarman的文字稿

Seth-Klarman-CFA-Conference-Notes -


JZ: In Margin of Safety, you were critical of Indexing, is that still the case?

SK: There is no perfect answer.  Yes, I still believe indexing is a horrible idea.  Stocks trade up when they’re added to the index so the index investor is paying up.  I’m more likely to buy the companies kicked out of the index.  For the average person, however, they don’t do enough research to own individual stocks.  The idea of owning stocks for the long run is a disservice to investors, because many are not there for the long run.  Many got out in 2008 when they should have been buying, because the entry point matters most.  Transaction costs and Taxes don’t matter if the market goes nowhere.  I’m very worried about another 10 years of zero or low returns since the market has run up so fast.

Jason Zweig問Seth Klarman對指數投資的看法，SK認為這其實沒有什麼標準答案，但他認為指數投資是一個很爛的想法，當股票被選為指數的成份股時，股價就會上漲，這是指數投資人投入資金所造成的。他寧願買被踢出指數的股票。然而，對於那些追求平均的人來說，他們沒有足夠的研究去持有個股。而持有股票很長一段期間對投資人也只是幫倒忙而已，因為有很多股票並不會長期維持相同的水準。很多投資人在2008年出場了，但是當時他們應該要買股票才對，其實進場的點是最重要的。交易成本和稅其實並不重要，如果市場沒有前途。SK很擔心我們會面臨另一個完全零報酬或是報酬很低的十年，尤其這次的復甦漲勢相當的快速。

JZ: In Margin of Safety, you said commodities were not investments since they do not produce cash flows, one possible exception being gold.  Do you still feel this way?

SK: I haven’t changed my mind, but that statement was in reference to rare stamps, or fine art, etc.   Valuing collectibles based on a future sale to a greater fool is speculating.  There is no way to analyze what it will be worth in the future.  Land is complicated because it will be valuable to future buyers and it can have cash flows. Gold has been thought of as a store of value but it is just a commodity and therefore it is a speculation.  I own gold because I want exposure to a devaluation of all paper monies.

Jason Zweig問Seth Klarman對投資商品的看法，是不是跟Margin of Safety書中說的一樣，認為商品不會產生現金流，並不屬於投資，唯一可能的例外是黃金。SK並沒有改變他的看法，不過對商品的看法並不是這麼簡單。如果你想對收藏品進行估價，並希望將來可以用高價賣給另一個更笨的傻瓜，這樣作就是投機，因為沒有任何方法可以去估計這些東西將來值多少錢。土地就比較複雜了，因為土地未來的確會有價值，而且可以產生現金流。而黃金一向被認為可以儲存價值，但是其實到頭來終究也只是一種商品，所以是一種投機。SK持有黃金只是因為認為所有紙類貨幣都會貶值。

JZ: What are the top asset classes for the next decade?

SK: Ask Jeremy Grantham! We’re opportunistic, we’ll buy what’s out of favor, what’s in financial distress, in litigation, in trouble, whatever.

Jason Zweig問Seth Klarman未來十年會投資什麼，SK說他是機會主義者，什麼失寵了、遇到金融危機或是有訴訟事件、有麻煩的都是他們要投資的。

JZ: Can you define a Value Stock and what is your average holding period?

SK: As for a Holding Period, we buy expecting to hold a bond to maturity and a stock forever.  Now we may turn over quicker if there’s rapid appreciation and the return from the current price doesn’t seem to compensate for the risks anymore.  There’s no such thing as a Value Company.  Price is all that matters. At some price, an asset is a buy, at another it’s a hold, and at another it’s a sell.

Jason Zweig問Seth Klarman怎麼定義價值型公司，SK回答說其實沒有所謂的價值型公司，價格才是重點。在某些價格，他們會買進某些資產，在另一些價格他們會持有這些資產，但是也會在其他價格的時候賣掉這些資產。雖然他們期望可以持有債券到期或是永遠持有股票，但是他們可能會更快速的作週轉，因為現在資產的價格可能不夠好到足以抵銷他們所冒的風險。

JZ: When will we see a re-issue of Margin of Safety?

SK: I have no immediate plans, but I do want to bring it back with either a companion manual or fresh introduction.  I have no time to write it, however, so it’s not coming anytime soon.  It’s not intentionally out of print, it happened accidentally. I’d like to raise money for charity somehow when I do bring it back.

問到會不會再版Margin of Safety這本經典的書，SK說會但是目前沒有規劃。

JZ: Any Book Recommendations (besides Margin of Safety and Security Analysis, of course)?

SK: Read as much as you can about the markets, economy, and financial history. Never stop reading.  Specific book recommendations include The Intelligent Investor, Greenblatt’s You Can Be A Stock Market Genius, Whitman’s Aggressive Conservative Investor, Anything from Jim Grant (he’s a great thinker, even if his predictions may not turn out right), Roger Lowenstein has not written a bad book, anything from him. Also Michael Lewis, who also hasn’t written a bad book either, but specifically MoneyBall which will go down as a definitive book on investing.  Also Too Big to Fail is good.

JZ: I’ll add How to Lie with Statistics.


這是兩位價值型投資的重要人物推薦的書籍。Margin of Safety我好不容易取得了這本書，下次Blog辦活動再當獎品送給大家。