Beware the Buffett Effect

Beware the Buffett Effect

• When you listen to Buffett and talk about bonds, you would think they are the worst investments ever, and that everyone should be investing in 100% stock all the time. The truth of that matter is that Buffettt does not like bonds, but he is never 100% invested in stocks. Buffettt prefers cash over bonds, and when you step back for a second there is not a huge difference between bonds and cash when you are stock investor. Both have an inverse correlation to stocks and are relatively safe, but cash is even safer.Comments：不過巴菲特最近轉向公司債了，最近他的一舉一動跟往常都不太一樣，要留意這些舉動的一些隱藏小訊息。

• When it comes to market timing if you listen to Buffett you would think that he is dead set against it. Nevertheless, his fortune has been built on being patient and waiting for the market to take a big drop, and then going in and buying everything cheap. Is this not market timing? You better believe it is!Comments：很多人在批評擇時投資人，但是如果不擇時使用的會是什麼買進策略？定期定額？定期定額在學術界、實際應用等各方面來說都沒有很強力的證據證明這是一個好的策略，頂多只是剋服投入心理的一種好策略。但是相對的，買便宜貨卻是一個五歲小孩都懂的策略，只在於哪時候才是真正的便宜？巴菲特用價值分析來判斷，有很多投資人用技術分析來判斷，不論什麼方法，其實如果認定股價是便宜的，在那個時候用力買進，就會勝過定期定額，關鍵在於你有沒有足夠的耐心。定期定額十年只能買到十年平均的股價，但是在十年之間找股價便宜的時候買可能會輕鬆降低自己的投資成本超過兩成。這種方法不必技術分析，也不必摸底，就是在熊市的時候才買股票就好了，買了之後長期持有，可能牛市的時候光是股息股利的報酬就是成本的10%-20%。至於很多擇時投資人在多頭時作多，空頭時放空的，那就不是這裡要談論的了，因為那是投機，不是投資。巴菲特想的是投資一家公司，所以去買股票，請假設你很看好中華電信，想買股票當大股東，你會在中華電信一股60的時候買？每個月買一張？還是等跌到剩下一股40的時候用力買？

• Market timing is really one of those things where most people are either on one end or the other. They either feel that is impossible or that is the only way to invest. Nobody can predict what is going to happen in markets consistently time after time, but when you close your mind to market timing you lose the flexibility necessary to be a good investor.

• Buffett is much more of a mystery than he would lead people to believe, and although he called derivatives weapons of mass destruction he himself has owned them. If you are looking for black and white investing tips, Buffett is not the place to start, like he has said “Investing is not complicated, but it is far from easy“.