2009年6月11日

「小虎基金」打敗股神巴菲特

【聯合晚報╱編譯朱小明/綜合報導】 2009.06.09 02:44 pm


投資人最大的心願莫過於打敗大市，美國財經雜誌「富比世」介紹了一位讓股神巴菲特也甘拜下風的投資老師：「小虎基金」（Tiger Cubs），在金融風暴中，這些避險基金今年仍然取得28%的獲利，遠勝過巴菲特不到2%的成績。

「小虎基金」經理是著名「老虎基金」創辦人羅伯森的傳人，羅伯森在2000年退下火線，老虎基金的班底自立門戶，管理包括美國藍山資本（Blue Ridge Capital）、孤松資本（Lone Pine Capital）、老虎環球基金（Tiger Global Management）等20支避險基金，號稱「小虎基金」。

在金融風暴中，「小虎」逆流而上，在2009年繳出獲利28%的漂亮成績，遠超過S&P500的3%升幅，更勝過巴菲特旗下波克夏公司10支股票今年僅1.5%的獲利。

如果比較10年報酬率，小虎更高達231.1%，平均年報酬率13.7%，巴菲特的成績是10年88.8%、平均年報酬率7%，而S&P500的數據則分別是負25.3%和負3.10%。

造成小虎基金和巴菲特獲利多寡的因素主要在選股，小虎基金的十大愛股包括高成長的Visa及MasterCard，股價看漲的Google、高通（Qualcomm）、Apollo集團及American Tower 等。而巴菲特的愛股則包括可口可樂、BNSF鐵路公司、寶潔、富國銀行、卡夫食品及美國運通等。

【2009/06/09 聯合晚報】


Robert Lenzner, 06.04.09, 06:00 PM EDT
Looking for overlaps in ownership across hedge funds can help you find some good stocks.
Robert Lenzner

Do you sincerely want to beat the market? Well, here's one clever way to try and accomplish that difficult-to-achieve ambition.

You can access, with some time delay, the largest holdings of the most successful hedge funds, like the 20 so-called Tiger Cubs set up by former employees of the highly successful Tiger hedge fund, folded in 2000 by founder Julian Robertson.

If you owned the top 10 stocks held by the Tiger cubs that emulate one another--hedge funds like Blue Ridge Capital, Lone Pine Capital, Maverick Capital, Tiger Global Management and Viking Global Investors--you'd be up 28% in 2009, far better than the Dow or S&P 500, which are barely better than flat. Plus you'd be way ahead of Berkshire's top 10 stock holdings, which have gained only 1.5% so far this year.

Over the past 10 years, the Tiger Cubs, just on the basis of their top 10 equity holdings and not including their short positions, have returned 231.1%, or 13.7% on an annualized basis--compared to Buffett's annualized return of 7%.

The margin of difference is due to the universe of stocks chosen. The Tiger Cubs had a large weighting in growth issues like credit card companies Visa ( V ) and MasterCard ( MA ) (see table below); growth stocks like Google ( GOOG ), Qualcomm ( QCOM ), Apollo Group ( APOL ) and American Tower ( AMT ).

While Buffett's largest positions were Coca-Cola ( KO ), Burlington Northern ( BNI ), Procter & Gamble ( PG ), Wells Fargo ( WFC ), Kraft ( KFT ) and American Express ( AXP ).

All these valuable tips on the market can come your way from an Internet investment service, Alphaclone.com, for $50 a month. And that outfit is hardly alone in tracking hedge fund holdings. Every hedge fund with more than $100 million in assets has to register with the SEC their stock holdings with a 45-day lag. This means that Alphaclone's listing of the cross ownership of the Tiger cubs is valid for the March 31 date, some two months ago.

Still, the Tiger Cubs have a very low turnover rate of 15% on the average. It's also clear that the Tiger Cubs must be sharing investment ideas. Some 10 of them owned Visa; eight held Mastercard; seven had Qualcomm and Google; five were invested in Apollo Group and American Tower; and four of the cubs had positions in Transdigm Group ( TDG ), American Movil ( AMX ), SPDR Gold Shares ( GOLD ) and Monsanto ( MON ).

Alphaclone gives equal weight to the top 10 holdings, which they believe is a better method of cloning. Investors can request any weighting of stocks and can choose any mix of hedge funds they'd like to emulate. Goldman Sachs ( GS ) has been selling this service for the last few years to wealthy investors as well. They simply take the 13F filings of the hedge funds and create baskets of the stocks with the most overlap.

Taken to the extreme, this strategy can mean a heightened correlation in the market where hot money keeps trying to follow the hedge funds who themselves are competing to beat the market and show a better return than their competitors. You need to be cautious about this strategy. Last fall, the no-brainer trade was to go short the most widely held basket of hedge fund holdings, because illiquid hedge funds needed to quickly liquidate their largest positions to deleverage in panicky conditions.

There's also the drawback that some of these stocks may have run up substantially since March 31, making them a relatively less attractive play right now. Both Visa and Qualcom have rallied about 33% since the March 31 cutoff date.

Be aware it is possible that the Tiger Cubs may well have lightened their positions or liquidated them completely. You won't be able to access their selling until the next reporting period, which will be in July for the period ending June 30.

By comparison, you can pretty well count on long-term investor Warren Buffett to continue holding his largest positions, as he can never liquidate them unless the companies merge or are bought out. Copycatting is not a riskless sport.


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