2010年1月11日

Barron's:危機入市獲利可期 波克夏股價恐被低估

(中央社台北2010年1月11日電)根據權威財經雜誌「巴倫週刊」未引述消息來源報導,億萬富豪巴菲特(Warren Buffett)在金融海嘯期間危機入市投資高盛(Goldman Sachs Group Inc. US-GS)和奇異(General Electric Co. US-GE),今年獲利前景強勁,旗下波克夏哈薩威股價恐被低估。

根據彭博報導,1月11日出刊的「巴倫週刊」(Barron’s)表示,波克夏 (Berkshire Hathaway US-BRK)A股股價目前約10萬美元,是2009年底帳面淨值的1.2倍,低於該公司過去10年平均股價淨值比1.65倍。該週刊預估,波克夏每股帳面淨值可能由8萬4500美元升抵9萬2000美元至9萬5000美元之間。

根據「巴倫週刊」,擔任波克夏董事長一職逾20年的巴菲特在金融危機期間,做了「睿智的高報酬率投資」,可望大幅推升今年A股每股盈餘至空前紀錄6000美元,遠高於2009年預估值4900美元。

波克夏去年股價計漲2.7%,低於同一時期的標準普爾500指數23%的漲幅。



The Buffett Paradox
By ANDREW BARY @ Barron's MONDAY, JANUARY 11, 2010 (Link)

WARREN BUFFETT THREW COLD WATER LAST week on Kraft Foods' bid for British candy maker Cadbury. But in doing so, he seems to be saying: "Do as I say, not as I do."

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (ticker: BRKA), Kraft's largest shareholder, with a 9% stake, voted against a proposal that would let Kraft (KFT) sharply boost its share count to facilitate a higher bid for Cadbury (CBY) -- which has rejected Kraft's original offer. Buffett views Kraft stock as undervalued, and issuing more shares dilutes existing stockholders' stakes.

Yet Berkshire is issuing $10 billion in shares of its own stock, which some investors view as quite undervalued, for its $34 billion cash-and-stock acquisition of Burlington Northern Sante Fe railroad (BNI), at $100 a share.

This could be a factor keeping Berkshire stock trailing the market, despite a strong 2010 profit outlook, stemming in part from Buffett's smart high-yield investments in Goldman Sachs (GS), General Electric (GE) and other companies during the financial crisis. Berkshire made over $20 billion in such investments, and the $2 billion in resulting annual income could help lift its operating profits to a record $6,000 per Class A share this year, from an estimated $4,900 in 2009.



Based on earnings and book value, Berkshire fans consider the Class A very attractive now, at around $100,000 a share. After rising just 3% in 2009, the stock, which is way below its late 2007 peak of $149,000, fetches a mere 1.2 times our estimate of the company's year-end 2009 book value of $84,500 a share -- compared with an average 1.65 times in the past decade. The stock rarely has been cheaper, relative to book value, in 15 years.

Says one longtime Berkshire holder: "Buffett appears to be giving up a piece of a very cheap company to buy one that is fairly priced. He is not so happy when his investment companies do the same thing."

Book value, moreover, understates what Buffett calls Berkshire's intrinsic value: the discounted value of its cash flow. Buffett won't estimate this, but has stated that it "significantly" exceeds book value, because auto insurer Geico and some other businesses are worth more than their carrying value on Berkshire's balance sheet.

Berkshire's book value could hit $92,000 to $95,000 a share this year if the financial markets stay strong. Thus, Berkshire may be trading below its 1.1 times forward book value. Why, then, is Buffett willing to issue equity for Burlington? He declined to comment last week, but he likes the railroad business, having accumulated a 22% stake in Burlington prior to the deal. In the past, he's called the transaction "an all-in wager on the economic future of the United States." And he's said that, while he's not enthusiastic about issuing more shares, the deal is too large to be all-cash and that he wants to give Burlington shareholders a tax-free option. Some think the 79-year-old investor wants to trim Berkshire's $24 billion in cash to cut the pressure on his successor to make investments.

Still, Berkshire is paying a full price for Burlington -- 18 times projected 2010 profits for a capital-intensive business. Other major rail companies are valued at about 15 times estimated 2010 earnings. One saving grace: Berkshire is using cash on its balance sheet and an estimated $8 billion in cheap financing for the deal, which uses a 60/40 mix of cash and stock.

The last time Berkshire did a major all-stock deal -- the $22 billion purchase of reinsurer Gen Re in 1998 -- its shares were at a lofty three times book value, a far cry from the currently low price/book ratio. If Berkshire's intrinsic value is $125,000, as some bulls assert, Burlington holders will get about $110 a share in value for their stock, which was trading near 99 late last week.

Berkshire watchers say the stock may be depressed from arbitrage activity ahead of the deal's closing, expected in the current quarter. The stock may get a lift subsequently, because arbitrage pressure will end and because Berkshire's Class B shares, now trading around $3,320, will become more accessible to individuals after a 50-for-1 split that will drop the price to about $66.

The Bottom Line
Berkshire Hathaway looks undervalued, while Burlington Northern seems fully valued. The railroad's holders are getting a surprisingly better deal than many realize.

It's possible that Berkshire could be added to the S&P 500 when Burlington is removed, assuming that the deal clears antitrust hurdles. S&P has kept Berkshire out of the index due to concern about the stock's liquidity. But the Burlington exit may give S&P an opportunity to reconsider. Joining the S&P 500 probably would boost Berkshire's share price, as index funds, whose holdings mirror the index, buy the stock.

The Burlington deal doesn't dent the investment case for Berkshire, which has a stock-market value of $155 billion. But it's surprising to see Buffett parting with a stock that is at its lowest valuation in a decade to buy an asset that seems fairly valued, at best. Maybe the railroad business has better prospects than most people think.





只許巴菲特放火﹐不許卡夫點燈?

2010年01月14日  華爾街日報


最近沃倫•巴菲特(WARREN BUFFETT)向卡夫食品公司(Kraft Foods)競購英國糖果公司吉百利(Cadbury)的舉措潑了一盆冷水。巴菲特似乎籍此向人們表明:按我說的做﹐但別照搬我的做法。

由於吉百利公司拒絕了卡夫的最初報價﹐因此卡夫(KFT)希望快速增發股票﹐從而以更高的價格競購吉百利(CBY)。巴菲特的伯克希爾哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)為卡夫最大股東﹐持有後者9%的股份﹐卻對上述提議投了否決票。巴菲特認為卡夫的股票估值過低﹐且發行更多的股票將攤薄現有股東的股權。

伯克希爾哈撒韋公司正在以價值340億美元的現金和股票收購鐵路公司Burlington Northern Sante Fe﹐每股價格100美元﹐並為此發行了價值100億美元的股票。一些投資者認為其估值也非常低。

發行新股可能會使伯克希爾公司的股票落後於市場﹐儘管部分得益於巴菲特在金融危機期間精明地出手投資高盛(GS)和通用電器(GE)等公司取得高收益﹐伯克希爾2010年利潤前景強勁。上述投資共耗資200億美元﹐由此帶來的20億美元的年收入將幫助提振該公司運營利潤﹐從2009年的預計每股4,900美元提升到今年創紀錄的每股6,000美元。

基於伯克希爾公司的收益與帳面價值﹐其追隨者認為現在其A類股十分有吸引力。該股2009年僅上漲了3%﹐當前價格為每股100,000美元左右﹐遠低於2007年149,000美元的峰值。預計該公司2009年終帳面價值為每股84,500美元。目前的股價僅為其1.2倍﹐而過去10年間平均為1.65倍。近15年來﹐其股價與帳面價值之比極少低於當前水平。

伯克希爾公司股票的長期持有者說﹐巴菲特看來正在放棄一個非常便宜的公司﹐以購買一個價格相對合理的公司。然而當他投資的公司也採取同樣的策略時﹐他卻不太高興。

而且﹐該帳面價值與巴菲特所稱的伯克希爾公司的內在價值(現金流的貼現價值)相比仍然較低。巴菲特未對此做出具體評估﹐但曾說過後者“大大”超過其帳面價值﹐因為汽車保險公司GEICO和一些其它業務的價值要高於其在伯克希爾公司資產負債表上的賬面價值。

如果金融市場保持強勁﹐伯克希爾公司今年的帳面價值可能會達到每股92,000美元至95,000美元的水平﹐因此以預期帳面價值來計算﹐伯克希爾公司的市淨率可能會低於1.1倍。為什麼巴菲特願意為Burlington發行股票呢?上週他拒絕就此做出評論。但巴菲特在收購伯靈頓前已經累積了該公司22%的股份﹐顯然很喜歡鐵路生意。他曾稱該交易是“美國經濟前途的全力一搏”﹐並說儘管他不熱衷於發行更多股票﹐但該巨額交易無法全部以現金實現﹐且他希望給Burlington的股東們一個可以免稅的選擇。人們認為這個79歲的投資人想通過減少伯克希爾公司持有的240億美元現金以減輕其繼任者的投資壓力。

伯克希爾公司仍以全價收購Burlington──以2010年預計收益的18倍購買資本密集型業務。其它主要鐵路公司的估價約為2010年預計收益的15倍左右。唯一可取之處是:伯克希爾公司利用其資產負債表上的現金和預計約80億美元的低成本融資進行交易﹐現金和股票分別為60%和40%。

1998年伯克希爾公司以價值220億美元的全股票形式收購再保險公司Gen Re,當時後者的股票價值是其帳面價值的3倍﹐比當前較低的市淨率高出一大截。如果伯克希爾公司的內在價值正如一些看多者所估計的有125,000美元﹐Burlington的股東將得到每股約110美元﹐而其上週末的交易價格約為99美元。

*******

觀察家認為伯克希爾公司的股價會先抑後揚:本季度該交易完成之前的套利活動會使股價下跌。但隨著套利壓力的消失﹐股價可能會有所提升。伯克希爾公司B類股票目前的交易價為3320美元左右﹐在其1拆50計劃完成之後﹐股價可能會降至66美元左右﹐不但更利於個人買進﹐同時對其股票價格也有推動作用。

如果該交易能夠通過反壟斷審查﹐伯克希爾公司有可能取代Burlington在標準普爾500中的位置。基於對其股票流動性的憂慮﹐標準普爾一直將伯克希爾公司排除在指數之外。但Burlington的退市或許給了標準普爾一個重新考慮的機會。加入標準普爾500可能推動伯克希爾股價上漲﹐因為指數型基金將會購買該公司的股票。

鑒於伯克希爾公司的股票市值為1550億美元﹐收購Burlington並不會拖累伯克希爾的投資前景。但巴菲特在一個股票處在10年最低值時將其拆股﹐去購買一份頂多算是合理估價的資產﹐著實令人驚訝。或許鐵路生意的前景將超出大多數人的預期。

ANDREW BARY

本文譯自《巴倫週刊》(Barron's)

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