S&P 500過去半世紀的股息配發情況

Year	S&P 500	Earnings Yield	Earnings	Dividend Yield	Dividends	Payout ratio
1960	58.11	5.34%	3.1	3.41%	1.98	63.87%
1961	71.55	4.71%	3.37	2.85%	2.04	60.53%
1962	63.1	5.81%	3.67	3.40%	2.15	58.58%
1963	75.02	5.51%	4.13	3.13%	2.35	56.90%
1964	84.75	5.62%	4.76	3.05%	2.58	54.20%
1965	92.43	5.73%	5.3	3.06%	2.83	53.40%
1966	80.33	6.74%	5.41	3.59%	2.88	53.23%
1967	96.47	5.66%	5.46	3.09%	2.98	54.58%
1968	103.86	5.51%	5.72	2.93%	3.04	53.15%
1969	92.06	6.63%	6.1	3.52%	3.24	53.11%
1970	92.15	5.98%	5.51	3.46%	3.19	57.89%
1971	102.09	5.46%	5.57	3.10%	3.16	56.73%
1972	118.05	5.23%	6.17	2.70%	3.19	51.70%
1973	97.55	8.16%	7.96	3.70%	3.61	45.35%
1974	68.56	13.64%	9.35	5.43%	3.72	39.79%
1975	90.19	8.55%	7.71	4.14%	3.73	48.38%
1976	107.46	9.07%	9.75	3.93%	4.22	43.28%
1977	95.1	11.43%	10.87	5.11%	4.86	44.71%
1978	96.11	12.11%	11.64	5.39%	5.18	44.50%
1979	107.94	13.48%	14.55	5.53%	5.97	41.03%
1980	135.76	11.04%	14.99	4.74%	6.44	42.96%
1981	122.55	12.39%	15.18	5.57%	6.83	44.99%
1982	140.64	9.83%	13.82	4.93%	6.93	50.14%
1983	164.93	8.06%	13.29	4.32%	7.12	53.57%
1984	167.24	10.07%	16.84	4.68%	7.83	46.50%
1985	211.28	7.42%	15.68	3.88%	8.2	52.30%
1986	242.17	5.96%	14.43	3.38%	8.19	56.76%
1987	247.08	6.49%	16.04	3.71%	9.17	57.17%
1988	277.72	8.69%	24.12	3.68%	10.22	42.37%
1989	353.4	6.88%	24.32	3.32%	11.73	48.23%
1990	330.22	6.86%	22.65	3.74%	12.35	54.53%
1991	417.09	4.63%	19.3	3.11%	12.97	67.20%
1992	435.71	4.79%	20.87	2.90%	12.64	60.57%
1993	466.45	5.77%	26.9	2.72%	12.69	47.17%
1994	459.27	6.91%	31.75	2.91%	13.36	42.08%
1995	615.93	6.12%	37.7	2.30%	14.17	37.59%
1996	740.74	5.49%	40.63	2.01%	14.89	36.65%
1997	970.43	4.54%	44.09	1.60%	15.52	35.20%
1998	1229.23	3.60%	44.27	1.32%	16.2	36.59%
1999	1469.25	3.52%	51.68	1.14%	16.71	32.33%
2000	1320.28	4.25%	56.13	1.23%	16.27	28.99%
2001	1148.09	3.38%	38.85	1.37%	15.74	40.51%
2002	879.82	5.23%	46.04	1.83%	16.08	34.93%
2003	1111.91	4.92%	54.69	1.61%	17.88	32.69%
2004	1211.92	5.58%	67.68	1.60%	19.407	28.67%
2005	1248.29	6.12%	76.45	1.79%	22.38	29.27%
2006	1418.3	6.18%	87.72	1.77%	25.05	28.56%
2007	1468.36	5.62%	82.54	1.89%	27.73	33.60%
2008	903.25	7.24%	65.39	3.11%	28.05	42.90%
2009	1115.1	5.35%	59.65	2.00%	22.31	37.40%

Data source

過去半世紀S&P 500的盈餘報酬率（Earnings Yield）平均值為6.87%，但近十年平均則只有5.39%，所以也難怪有不少經濟學者認為其實美股的價位並不便宜，因為從股價淨值比或是盈餘報酬率來看，跟歷史數據一比都會顯得目前股市的投資價值並不吸引人。不過這並非投資人能夠左右的，當市場都認為這是新常態，那投資人也只能認清並接受了。

而股息殖利率也有相同的現象，過去半世紀平均值為3.17%，但近十年平均則只有1.82%，這樣的殖利率其實一點都不吸引人。美股市場其實已經盤整了將近二十年，過去一世紀的長期向上趨勢已經消失，因此投資人無法再期待投資股市有很好的資本利得，那麼就只能靠殖利率以及再投資來提供投資人報酬，可是1.82%的殖利率與股市的高風險比起來，其實真的很難吸引投資人，而債券也就會比股市還有吸引投資人了。

而另外一個重點則是配發率（Payout ratio=Dividends/Earnings），過去半世紀平均值為46.25%，近十年則為33.75%，所以最近十年，不但上市公司賺得少，股息配發率也不如以往。

PS：黑線為十年平均線。